Joe Biden's economic policies might be his greatest accomplishment.

If President Biden succeeds, Americans everywhere will not only be better off, they will feel like the system works again. That’s what draining the swamp really means.

It is impossible, in any age, to identify exactly the events that change the world. In July of 1914, no-one in Europe thought the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand and his wife Sophie by the Serbian student Gavrilo Princip would destroy 19^th Century European culture and catapult humanity into its bloodiest epoch. In July of 1972, no-one in America thought a third rate burglary in the Watergate building would destroy a Presidency and usher in a new era of highly critical journalism. Countless examples like these are way it is so foolish to predict the future.

And yet… anticipating what is to come is what we do. So, with full expectation history will certainly make a fool of me, I’d like to make some predictions.

First, in our nation’s capital the new committee on the so-called “weaponization of government” will succeed only in hardening a shrinking GOP base and expanding Democratic majorities around the country. The much-ballyhooed launch of that committee this week was a thing to behold. Instead of focusing on areas where government has truly crossed a line- for example when it bans books or forces young girls to disclose their menstrual histories, the topics of outrage were Hunter Biden’s laptop, Hillary’s emails, and the supposedly lying FBI. Among the things we learned were that that the committee has no actual evidence, and that their standards are so low that that one of their witnesses was Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson, who is, and I am being charitable here, not known for his fealty to truth. 

You cannot blame the committee’s bulldog chairman, Jim Jordan, for having high hopes. The last time he took the gavel to broadcast scandalous lies he succeeded in damaging Hillary Clinton’s reputation just enough to keep her out of the White House. But this time Democrats seem better prepared to respond. More importantly, Americans now have the model of the effective 117^th Congress in mind. We actually expect Congress, now, to do real work. Consequently, fewer and fewer Americans are going to go down this rabbit hole. The ones that do will get stuck there. But the rest of us will see it for it is.

Second, Donald Trump will likely not be the GOP candidate for President. I do think the GOP base is as loyal to him as ever. They are the ones in that rabbit hole I just mentioned. But this week the special counsel subpoenaed Mike Pence. The end of the beginning, as Churchill said, is upon us. I expect Mr. Trump will be indicted on a range of federal charges before the first primary. His numbers will tank, and he will drop out. The remaining GOP nominees will breathe a sigh of relief than claim the prosecution is politically motivated, further undermining our democratic norms.

Third, and this is the most out there of my predictions, when they write about the Biden presidency in a generation the focus will not be on the stunning accomplishments of the 117^th Congress, or even about the way he rallied the world to fight Russian aggression. I do not even think it will be about the political battle for our democracy.  I predict the biggest impact of the Biden presidency, the most lasting impact, the one that will do more to change America than all the rest, is his renewed interest in democratic economics.

Economics, for much of my adult life, has been about efficiency and corporate freedom. These powerful ideas have led to the largest growth in corporate power in human history. Companies like Amazon, Facebook, Google, but also companies like Exxon, Pfizer, and Federal Express, these are some most amazing organizations ever created. Their ability to create profits and to meet consumer demand has no peer in history. But unchecked, there is a downside, and it echoes an older era- the age of monopolies. The so-called Lochner era of unregulated corporate power. 

Robert Reich, the former U. S. Labor Secretary has written about this. He says that Keynesian economics- that’s the idea that government can and should boost consumer buying power through the issuance of debt when the economy slows- has been pushed to its limits. He shows how consolidated corporate power and the consolidation of wealth into the hands of fewer and fewer people means the size of the debt required to boost consumer spending get bigger and bigger until there’s no room for anything else. 

President Joe Biden delivers his State of the Union address on February 7, 2023. Courtesy: The White House

This seems to be something President Biden understands in his core. On his watch, for the first time in decades, the government is taking anti-trust issues seriously. He issued an Executive Order back in July of 2021 that took aim at monopolistic corporate behaviors. His administration has put the consumer back into M&A analyses. And this week during the State of the Union, he called on Congress to strengthen anti-trust laws. 

If he succeeds, the gap between the very, very rich, and the rest of us will stop growing. The very rich will still be wealthier than the rest of us, so they needn’t worry. And companies will still be profitable. But hard working Americans will, one again, share in the value we create through our labor and through the civil society we build- which after all, supports both the companies and the consumer spending that keeps them going.

If President Biden succeeds, Americans everywhere will not only be better off, they will feel like the system works again. That’s what draining the swamp really means. And it will calm the desperate search for someone to blame-- the blind and senseless furry turned on immigrants, young Black men, Jews, trans teens, and others. 

Most of us are focused on the important battles over voting rights, reproductive rights, the freedom to read books in Florida. But I predict it will be the change of economic seasons that makes the great difference going forward. 

But as I said at the top, who knows what the future will really bring? I just know it is fun to think about every once in a while.