Is today’s GOP just like the 1969 Chicago Cubs- a front runner now on the verge of an epic collapse?
It's beginning to look like a sure path to victory is about to be dropped in what would be the political choke of the century.
For baseball lovers, late August is the time to muse on epic collapses and memorable chokes. Back in 1969, I was at that age when every pitch mattered and my team, the Chicago Cubs, were finally on their way to winning the pennant. As the front runner, all they had to do was hold off the Mets who were having a late season surge. Our ace, Fergie Jenkins was on the mound.
Listen to Jack Brickhouse make the call… Don Young drops fly ball 7/8/1969 - YouTube

Don Young’s dropped fly ball was the beginning of the end. The Mets took the series and went on to win the pennant and the World Series. The Cubs? They didn’t win the World Series for another 57 years.
This year, however, the front runner at most risk for an epic failure is not a sports team, it is the MAGA GOP. Theirs could be a once-in-a-generation collapse- the kind of disaster that will take a generation of rebuilding to overcome.
Approaching the midterms, the GOP have everything going for it. The Democrats hold the White House, a traditional formula for the other party’s midterm success. Only twice in the past fifty years has the incumbent President’s party won House seats during midterms. On both occasions, the President’s approval ratings were above 60 percent. President Biden’s poll numbers are in the dumpster. Meanwhile, most voters say the economy is a top issue, a factor that historically favors Republicans. And yet, as the midterms approach, an epic choke feels possible.
Running towards its radical base, the GOP is offending the majority of Americans at every turn. The unforgivable Dobbs decision left the question of abortion to states. GOP controlled states promptly enacted draconian and cruel laws stripping away reproductive choice and criminalizing women. In the months that followed, Americans registered to vote in huge numbers, led by women who are registering in record numbers.
Trapped by their own base, the GOP’s race to extremism continues to accelerate and is reaching escape velocity. The MAGA base demands gag rules on teachers and book bans. Their legislators oblige. Not content with protecting legitimate gun rights, the base wants anyone to easily obtain a military-style weapon and to carry it secretly anywhere- even into schools. Their legislators oblige. The base embraces the big lie. Their legislators oblige and pass laws to undermine election integrity and voting rights. And the rhetoric becomes more and more violent. This past week threats of MAGA inspired violence led the IRS to launch a full security threat assessment in order to protect their employees from right wing violence. Meanwhile, Democrats are holding the center.
Sometimes different movements come together and change the country. In the 1960s, for example, the civil rights movement joined forces with the anti-war movement. The MAGA GOP has united Americans who had previously fought separate battles- for reproductive choice, for common sense gun laws, for voting rights, for climate science, for unions. These Americans are motivated and determined- like the ’69 Mets.
Last week, polls showed that Marc Molinaro, a popular Republican recruited by the NRCC to win a special election in a red-leaning district in upstate New York, held a small lead over Democrat Pat Ryan. Molaro campaigned on traditional GOP themes- crime and the economy. This week, he lost to a Ryan who ran a campaign focused on abortion rights and common-sense gun laws. Just like that, GOP commentators cannot shake the anticipatory dread of imminent collapse.
Poll numbers show Democrats gaining ground. Maybe more telling, the numbers show Democrats catching the GOP in voter enthusiasm. Maybe this has something to do with the impressive accomplishments Democrats can run on. Certainly, those are contributing to a steady uptick in President Biden’s poll numbers. But passing legislation does not easily translate into electoral success. Instead, it is GOP radicalization that is driving the majority of registered voters to say that issues like abortion and threats to the democracy are very important in the upcoming election.
Should the full embrace of MAGA madness lead to an epic collapse this cycle, we can expect the GOP’s internal civil war to consume them for the foreseeable future. As a Cubs fan, I’ve seen this ugly and prolonged decline before. For the country’s sake, I hope it does not take the GOP fifty years to become a mainstream party once more.