I hear you're free on Wednesdays
Maybe sharing the stage is the thing that will bring some real information to the willfully blind. The format for the first debate matters: no live audience, strict time limits, strong moderators.
“I hear you’re free on Wednesdays.”
And with that, Joe Biden answered Donald Trump’s call for debates. Within hours, two debates were agreed upon. The first one, on June 27 will be at CNN’s studio, without a live audience. Jake Tapper and Dana Bash will moderate. Candidates will have time limits enforced by mute buttons.
Until now, I had been sympathetic to the arguments against debates. Giving a platform and some legitimacy to a dangerous demagogue who stands accused of attempting to overturn our election is risky. Sharing the stage with a conman who will say anything hardly helps voters make policy choices. Eight years after Mr. Trump floated down the escalator to announce his presidency, lie about the number of people there to welcome him, and accuse Mexicans of sending rapists to cross the border, the press is no closer to being able to handle his stream of lies. Wouldn’t giving Mr. Trump the enormous platform of a presidential debate just allow him to spread more lies and by virtue of his standing next to Mr. Biden, render an equivalence to the man that is utterly lacking in reality?
Now, however, I think Biden’s campaign is a lot savvier than people think.
First, the invitation to debate itself was brilliant. It showed the President as forceful, fearless, and ready to take it to Mr. Trump. It reminded everyone that Trump is a defendant in court, not a man in control of his own schedule. The invitation also stipulated rules that take away many of the worrisome elements of previous debates. The partisan audience. The ability to ramble on and shout over everyone else. The lack of focus on issues. The emphasis on spectacle rather than on ideas. (The demise of the Commission on Presidential Debates is a separate story. It’s ultimate failure offers many lessons we must learn from.)
Photo Credit: Brendan Smialowski / AFP - Getty Images
Second, the debate answers one of the most vexing concerns in our democracy-- the prevalence of what some people call “low information voters.” Last month NBC News polled registered voters on Presidential preference and news consumption habits. They found that “Trump does best among voters who don’t follow political news at all.” These findings were widely reported at the time but are worth revisiting in light of the debate now scheduled.
The ignorance of Trump voters is good news for Democrats and for those who care about our democracy. Democrats have outperformed the polls in the midterms and in special elections since 2020. In part, that’s because people who are well informed are also more likely to vote. Since Trump’s voters are decidedly not well informed, they did not show up in anything like their real proportion among the electorate. Second, it probably means that most Trump voters don’t actually know what Trump has promised to do, and probably wouldn’t support him if they did. I’ve long thought Americans are unlikely to throw away their democracy. They simply do not see the threat that those who pay attention can no longer ignore.
On the other hand, that good news means little in the upcoming election. Donald Trump has proven his ability to get unlikely voters to show up on election day. Democrats have to prepare for a record-breaking turnout. They should assume that this time those ill-informed voters will show up.
To make matters worse, Joe Biden is an incumbent in a divisive time. He is attacked all sides, for example, over his handling of the Israel – Hamas war. At the same time, Americans long-standing habit of airbrushing away the failures of former Presidents benefits Mr. Trump. Many no longer remember the lethal chaos his COVID response. This should worry Democrats.
Maybe sharing the stage is exactly the thing that will bring some real information to the willfully blind. The format for the first debate matters: no live audience, strict time limits, strong moderators. The agreement limits participation so, at least right now, it seems unlikely any of the other candidates will participate. It is a format that will allow voters to decide if Joe Biden is too old to do the job. It is also a format that will allow voters to hear Donald Trump answer for the Dobbs decision, his management of the pandemic, January 6th, and his multiple civil and criminal trials. It will allow Americans to hear about policy choices- on issues as divisive as the border, climate change, and foreign wars.
And, we can expect a debate between these two men to draw an enormous audience. The stakes could not be higher. The Supreme Court will still be in session, considering major questions like Presidential immunity and whether to severely limit the availability of medical abortions. Mr. Trump may yet be on trial. Trump has told his supporters that Joe Biden is a senile old man. Biden supporters see Trump as a dangerous autocrat. Everyone expects a train wreck of some kind, and everyone will tune in to see it. What we will see, however, is something more real- two men who have both sat in the oval office answering questions about our future and their own records.
In other words, voters will be more informed after the debate. Since we know that Donald Trump does best amongst the least informed, short of the unlikely event that Joe Biden gets utterly lost, this debate cannot possibly help Trump. We also know that from tax policy to climate change, from abortion to Russia, Americans young and old support the issues championed by Joe Biden and they dislike those championed by Mr. Trump. We also know that the debate format takes away the one issue where Mr. Trump could claim popular support. On the border, Mr. Biden can remind everyone that a bi-partisan solution was tanked by Mr. Trump for nothing more than his own political expedience.
Educated voters are Biden voters. A debate that educates helps Biden.
The poll raises very important questions about the political bias of tech company algorithms. It demonstrates the power of FOX cable. But it should also calm the anxieties of Democrats who think the New York Times is creating a false equivalence between the parties. Readers of newspapers overwhelming support Joe Biden. No doubt post-debate coverage will return to the free for all we are so used to. But people will have seen for themselves.
In the end, that was always where we were going to end up. The election will not hinge on media coverage, but on the candidates themselves, and on the work of political parties and their allies on the ground across America. In the end, that’s as it should be.